| 2009-10 Season Preview: Milwaukee Bucks Authored by Andrew Perna - October 14, 2009 - 12:10 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: -2.7, 19th
Key Additions: Carlos Delfino, Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas
Key Subtractions: Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, Ramon Sessions
Key Rookies: Brandon Jennings, Jodie Meeks
Probable Starters: Luke Ridnour, Michael Redd, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Joe Alexander, Andrew Bogut
Point Guard: The Bucks lost Ramon Sessions to free agency, leaving them with Luke Ridnour as their starting point guard. Brandon Jennings could be the starter by season’s end, but he’s too young and inexperience right now.
I didn’t understand the “fascination” with Sessions in free agency this summer, because he has significant limitations on both sides of the basketball, but his ceiling is much higher than that of Ridnour in a few different ways. Not only is Sessions younger, but he has the potential to explode on any given night -- remember the 44 points he scored against the Pistons in early February?
Ridnour entered the league as a shooter, but six years into his NBA career he’s never shot better than 41.8% from the field or 37.6% from three-point land. He is, however, a very good passer with great hands. He assisted on 28.2% of Milwaukee’s baskets when on the floor last season, but that figure is significantly lower than what Sessions posted (34.6) as the team’s starter. If I ran an NBA team, I’d want him as a backup.
Right now, Jennings is the future at the position. He’s not a traditional point guard, but like former Bucks' point guard Mo Williams, his size gives the Bucks really no other option than to make him into one. He sees the court well, but doesn’t always make the best decisions. Like most small point guards, he’s fast while lacking strength.
Swingmen: Michael Redd played in just 33 games last season because of a knee injury that has also prevented him from entering training camp at 100%. He’s lost Richard Jefferson as a perimeter partner, which means even more of the offensive load will fall on his shoulders. If he’s healthy, he should be among the best value fantasy options at shooting guard because he’ll be taking 20 shots a game.
He’s a great scorer and still one of the best shooters in the league. He also has a very quick release, like that of Ray Allen, which makes his shot hard to contend. The Bucks aren’t going to compete this season and Redd will make more than $17 million. That could lead to trade rumors involving the former Buckeye and possibly even a deadline deal.
Charlie Bell has developed into a very solid rotation player and one of the most entertaining players on Twitter (@flintstone14). He hasn’t repeated the 13.5 points per game he averaged in 2007, but his shot is still valued off the bench. The Bucks were the league’s worst team defensively (allowing 112.8 points per 100 possessions) and at the very least Bell brings defensive toughness and determination to the table.
With Charlie Villanueva in Detroit, Milwaukee will turn to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to start at small forward. For the time being, that is. Carlos Delfino could challenge for the position, but at the end of the day both represent steps down from Villanueva. Delfino is the better offensive option, but the Bucks have bigger issues on defense.
They lack a proven option alongside Redd on the perimeter, which is a scary proposition in an improved Eastern Conference. There are no shortage of bodies, you can add rookie guard Jodie Meeks and forward Ersan Ilyasova, a veteran of 66 games back in 2007, into the mix as well.
Frontcourt: The Bucks are nearly as thin at power forward as they are behind Redd on the wing. Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles will have to decide between the inexperienced Joe Alexander and veteran Kurt Thomas as his starter.
Ultimately, they would be better off giving a bulk of the minutes to Alexander, even if he is playing out of position. After struggling through his rookie season, he showed some flashes of brilliance in Las Vegas this summer. If he can develop a nice on-court relationship with Jennings, it will help the futures of both players. He’s the team’s most athletic and explosive player, but needs to work on a lot of fundamentals.
He hit 34.8% of his three-point attempts, although he took just 46 in his rookie year, but his overall field goal percentage was disappointing. He made 41.6% of his shots, which isn’t good enough for a player that has decent touch on his jump shots and the ability to get to the basket.
Thomas is obviously the better defensive player and the more stable presence as a heady veteran. Skiles could make offensive/defensive switches with Alexander and Thomas, but again that isn’t going to help them down the road if the former doesn’t work on becoming an effective one-on-one defender to pair with his good shot blocking instincts.
The center position is locked up by Andrew Bogut, who like Redd, missed a good chuck of last season with an injury. He missed 46 games with a bad back that eventually required surgery. He’s been strong so far during the preseason, but I can attest that back issues are hard to shake. With that said, if he’s able to get back (no pun intended) to 100%, the Bucks will have an All-Star caliber center on their side.
Bogut isn’t just a good rebounder and post scorer, he’s also an above-average passer for a big man. If the Bucks are going to ship one of their stars out of town at midseason to continue their rebuilding project, it’ll almost certainly be Redd and not Bogut, who they signed to a five-year, $60 million extension last summer. A player like Bogut is simply harder to get your hands on than a guy like Redd, no matter how talented the gunner happens to be.
Forecast: Even if Redd and Bogut are healthy, the Bucks are undoubtedly headed to the lottery yet again. They’ll probably be in the mid-30s in wins, which won’t be good enough to end their three-year postseason drought or get a high draft pick. They have a solid core in Jennings, Bogut, Mbah a Moute and potentially Alexander to build around if they do trade Redd to a contender, which, judging from the three times I’ve mentioned it in roughly 1,000 words, is something I’d suggest to general manager John Hammond.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7. |
