| RotoFreak.com: Charlotte Bobcats Fantasy Preview Authored by Craig Huffman - October 3, 2006 - 10:00 am
| Current Featured Columns | | Final Thoughts On The 2008 NBA Draft This year's draft was decidedly more calm and casual than the Oden/Durant showdown, which made for a more candid and personal experience.
Grading The Deal: Baron Joins The Clips'It was savage' but as quickly as Baron became Mr. Warrior, he now is on his way to L.A. to become Mr. Clipper.
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Oh Danny Boy
Danny Granger, who has just three years of NBA experience under his belt, will undoubtedly be the man in Indiana beginning this summer.
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$10 Million For Five Players?
The Orlando Magic will be limited by the NBA's Luxury Tax in terms of filling the remaining spots on their roster. It is also possible it could cost them Keyon Dooling or Maurice Evans.
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Raptorland’s New Carnivore
The Raptors are bringing in a player who will have an immediate impact (unlike Hibbert or whomever the Raptors would’ve drafted at 17), plays a position of need (unlike Ford,) and carries a reputation of intimidation (unlike Nesterovic).
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More from RealGM's Columnists
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Bobby Simmons – We didn't see an utter collapse in the first year after the big contract; but, Simmons wasn't exactly consistent nor did he meet expectations. In his defense, he was battling the dreaded plantar fasciitis for most of the year. So, that's linked to his defensive play leveling off (although Stotts' weak defensive schemes probably didn't help). Nevertheless, with their starting lineup filled with mediocre-to-poor defenders, they're relying on Simmons to step up his game. With a defensive stopper backing him up (Patterson), we're not confident that the minutes will rise. So, we'll keep him at last year's value - around the top 70. With Bobby not exactly a household name, seeing him available in the 80 to 90 range wouldn't surprise us.
Charlie Villanueva – It's sad to see Charlie leaving the run-and-gun Raptors, as his no-defense, all-offense game seemed to fit right in there. Obviously, the Bucks' offense isn't exactly stale and there's a wide open spot for Charlie in the starting lineup; so, this isn't going to stunt his growth as a fantasy player. His stats resemble those of Donyell Marshall, and if you were playing the game 3 or 4 years ago, you'd know that that isn't a knock on Charlie's upside as a fantasy player. He truly is a 9-cat talent - the turnovers are miniscule, percentages in check, defensive stats above average, and handles strong enough to give you a couple of dimes per game. With Skinner and Ruben capable of playing the 4, we're not giving Charlie full minutes yet. So, we're keeping him around last year's value (the 80th pick). Since he does have a load of upside, we won't fault you for picking him 10 spots earlier than that, though.
Andrew Bogut – The Aussie gave us about as much as expected last year. With Magloire, Gadzuric, Kukoc and Joe Smith on board, his minutes were capped. And since he isn't a big-time shotblocker, he didn't have a lot of upside out of the gates. They made a little more room for Bogut to develop this offseason, though. They shipped out Magloire and Joe Smith for some perennial bench players, and they didn't offer Kukoc a contract. So, 30+ mpg can be expected this year, as well as an increase in fantasy value. With Bogut playing a higher percentage of his minutes at the 5 this year, his rebounds should inch closer to 10. His offensive skills are still under development; however, 12 PPG is certainly obtainable. And although his assists and steals are above average, his poor FT%, mediocre BLK totals and lack of 3's will still limit his upside. Based on the mpg increase and projected improvement, a jump of 25 spots from last year's 100th ranking seems fair.
Mo Williams – He's not exactly an ideal starter at the point for Milwaukee; however, he's the odds-on-favorite to win it right now. The problems lie on the defensive end, and the fact that he's known more for his instant offense off the bench than for his pass-first mentality. He has shown the ability to put up quality assist numbers, though... look no further than his 04-05 stats, when TJ was out for the year. Mo had a terrific assists per 48 total of 10.4. That's 1.5 assists higher than TJ's total of last year. With his role clearly defined, and new contract coming next year, it's a safe bet that Mo will do whatever it takes to stay in Stotts' favor. As a starter, we'll assume that the 3pt attempts will be curbed, giving him upside around the top 75. Since Blake and Bell are capable of starting, we're not denying the downside; however, we think a rank in the 110 to 115 range is fitting considering the risk/reward involved.
Dan Gadzuric – He's not an offensive threat and he doesn't have much mpg upside; however, his quality rebound, steal and block totals make him an intriguing pick in the later rounds. 25 mpg should put him in the top 125; however, he'd likely need a Charlie or Bogut injury to manage that. So, we'll go with a more conservative estimation of 17 mpg and a value around 165. He'll be available later than that in deep leagues, though.
Steve Blake – The upside really isn't there with Blake, and even if he starts, he won't get a lot of minutes. But, since Larry Harris basically dealt Magloire for him, the odds are that he won't be stapled to the bench. So, Blake will likely be the dependable point guard in the rotation, providing a pass-first mentality and steady defense. If a mixup in the rotation occurs, Blake will likely benefit and he could be a top 130'ish player once again. The odds are not in his favor right now, though... we'll look for him around 165.
Charlie Bell – He's undersized at the 2 and Redd won't leave him with many minutes there; however, Bell could challenge for the starting pg spot as well. He was an absolute behemoth in the 5 games he started there last year - averaging 17 and 7. So, we'll keep an eye on the pg situation in training camp. As of now, he's an outside shot to start; so, we're ranking him around the top 160.
Ruben Patterson – The window for Ruben seeing over 30 mpg is small, and his poor FT% and high TO doesn't make him a very good option during the best of times. He's waiver wire material unless Stotts mixes things up and Ruben finds himself starting.
Brian Skinner – Unless Charlie completely flops, we won't be seeing enough of Skinner to warrant drafting him. You can safely pull him from the wire if he stumbles into any value.
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